![]() The Irish domestic economy faces heightened risks should interest rates stay higher for longer and should the information and communications tech giants hit further turbulence. The reasons, the ESRI highlights, include consumption holding up, low levels of unemployment through the pandemic and through the cost-of-living crisis, and robust government finances, which will lead to a further annual budget surplus this year. Recession looks less likely than it did at the start of the year, although the banking crisis of recent weeks could weigh later this year, according to the report. The ESRI, nonetheless, predicts a modest rise in house prices this year. Meantime, inflation and further interest rate hikes have pushed up building costs, made securing a first-time home loan less likely, and could increase demand for rental properties "which are already under pressure", Prof McQuinn said. It forecasts 31,000 completions in 2024, boosted by Government housing policy, but noted "numerous risks on the downside to these forecasts such as interest rate increases, broad financial stress and further inflationary factors". ![]() The ESRI estimates 27,000 new homes will be built this year, down from almost 30,000 units in 2022, as building costs soared. "House building costs is one of the reasons, I think, you saw the commencement data down last year and in turn why the overall supply levels are likely to be lower this year than what they were last year," Prof McQuinn said.ĮSRI professor Kieran McQuinn said new census data later this year, which will likely show the population is growing faster than previously thought, will highlight the continuing acute demand for housing. ![]() ![]() However, the new census data will likely in turn mean that the ESRI increases its new homes targets, Prof McQuinn said. Kieran McQuinn, economics professor at the ESRI, said new census data later this year, which will likely show the population is growing faster than previously thought, will highlight the continuing acute demand for housing.ĮSRI researchers in the past estimated that 30,000 to 35,000 new homes a year were required to start meeting demand and help to keep house price and rental inflation in check. ![]()
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